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Serie A · Regular Season - 31
Sao Paulo
1 - 0Full time
Vasco DA Gama
Morumbi · Referee: Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Draw or Away (X2)
Odds1.67
73%
Confidence · Good
Sao PauloDrawVasco DA Gama
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS
Yes
52%
Correct score
1-1
12%
HT/FT
1/1
23%
Double chance
X2
73%
Avg goals
2.5
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Double chance : draw or Vasco DA Gama.
  • Recent form: Sao Paulo LWLLW, Vasco DA Gama LWWWD (oldest to newest).
  • Sao Paulo score 1.2 a game this season; Vasco DA Gama score 1.2.

Match preview

Sao Paulo host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A (Regular Season - 31) on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Morumbi.

This season Sao Paulo score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals a game; Vasco DA Gama score 1.2 and concede 1.4.

In their last 5 meetings, Sao Paulo won 2, Vasco DA Gama won 3 and 0 ended level.

Our model leans towards Draw or Away (X2) with 73% confidence, priced at 1.67.

Quick answers

Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our model gives Sao Paulo 27%, the draw 37% and Vasco DA Gama 36%. Our tip is Draw or Away (X2) (73% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 52% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect under 2.5 goals (two or fewer), 54% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Sao Paulo 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance X2 (Draw or Away (X2)) has 73% confidence at odds of 1.67.

When is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Kick-off is Sunday, 18 October 2026, 00:00 UTC at Morumbi. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Match events

  1. Artur Victor Guimarães42'
  2. 44'Facundo Colidio
  3. 45'Paulo Henrique ⇄ Jose Luis Rodriguez
  4. Luciano ⇄ Lucas Moura45'
  5. Rafael Tolói ⇄ Jose Monteiro45'
  6. 51'Gabriel PereiraRed card cancelled
  7. 54'Gabriel Pereira
  8. 62'Bruno Duarte Da Silva ⇄ Brenner
  9. Artur Victor GuimarãesAssist: Pedro Lima68'
  10. Marcos Antonio ⇄ Pablo Maia71'
  11. 74'Tchê Tchê ⇄ Thiago Mendes
  12. 74'Santiago Sosa ⇄ Jair
  13. Jonathan Calleri ⇄ Gustavo Santana80'
  14. Artur Victor Guimarães ⇄ Luis Osorio Messias De Oliveira89'
  15. 89'Alan Lescano ⇄ Adson
  16. Iago Amaral Borduchi90+2'

Match stats

Sao PauloVasco DA Gama
Possession
40%60%
Expected goals (xG)
1.260.92
Shots
913
Shots on target
22
Corners
34
Fouls
1415
Offsides
12
Yellow cards
22
Red cards
00
Saves
21
Passes
381577