Heerenveen vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Tips
Draw or Away (X2)Odds2.30
HeerenveenDrawExcelsior
36%33%31%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67%
Why we like it
- Model advice: Double chance : draw or Excelsior.
- Recent form: Heerenveen DLDWL, Excelsior WDLDL (oldest to newest).
- Heerenveen score 1.4 a game this season; Excelsior score 2.0.
Match preview
Heerenveen host Excelsior in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 9) on Friday, 16 October 2026 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
In their last 5 meetings, Heerenveen won 2, Excelsior won 2 and 1 ended level.
Our model leans towards Draw or Away (X2) with 64% confidence, priced at 2.30.
Quick answers
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Our model gives Heerenveen 36%, the draw 33% and Excelsior 31%. Our tip is Draw or Away (X2) (64% confidence).
Will both teams score?
Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 65% confidence.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 67% confidence.
What is the predicted correct score?
Our most likely score is Heerenveen 2 - 1 Excelsior. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.
What is the safest bet?
Double chance X2 (Draw or Away (X2)) has 64% confidence at odds of 2.30.
When is Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Kick-off is Friday, 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC at Abe Lenstra Stadion. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.
Match events
- ●Dylan VentePenalty11'
- 43'Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
- 45'David Garden ⇄ Mario Domínguez Franco⇄
- ●Oliver Johansen BraudeAssist: Jacob Trenskow54'
- 66'Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson ⇄ Ilano Silva Timas⇄
- 66'Aymen sliti ⇄ Valentin Sulzbacher⇄
- 66'Simon Janssen ⇄ Osman Turay⇄
- ⇄Maxence Rivera ⇄ Marko Farji73'
- 77'Eric da Silva Moreira ⇄ Noah Naujoks⇄
- ⇄Nolhan courtens ⇄ Luca Oyen82'
- ⇄Levi Smans ⇄ Ringo Meerveld82'
- ⇄Dylan Vente ⇄ Roberts Uldriķis82'
- ●Luca OyenAssist: Ringo Meerveld84'
- ⇄Maas Willemsen ⇄ Hristiyan Petrov86'
- ●Jacob Trenskow88'
Match stats
HeerenveenExcelsior
Expected goals (xG)
2.330.73
Key stats
Per game, this seasonHeerenveenExcelsior
Model comparison
PercentHeerenveenExcelsior
Goals scored, last 5
8.09.0
Goals conceded, last 5
7.011.0
Goal forecast: Heerenveen Under 2.5, Excelsior Under 2.5Model verdict: Win or draw
Heerenveen · last 0
0W 0D 0LNo matches.
Excelsior · last 0
0W 0D 0LNo matches.
Head to head
Last 9Mar 2026Excelsior1-2Heerenveen
Oct 2025Heerenveen2-1Excelsior
Jan 2024Excelsior3-0Heerenveen
Sept 2023Heerenveen0-3Excelsior
May 2023Heerenveen0-0Excelsior
Nov 2022Excelsior0-1Heerenveen
Jul 2022Heerenveen3-1Excelsior
Oct 2019Excelsior0-3Heerenveen
Mar 2019Heerenveen1-0Excelsior
Best available odds
DecimalHT/FT
1/X15.00
1/229.00
X/212.00
X/X8.00
1/12.30
X/14.75
2/117.00
2/X15.00
2/28.50
Correct score
2-19.00
1-19.00
2-011.00
3-111.00
1-012.00
2-212.00
3-013.00
3-217.00
1-217.00
4-119.00
4-021.00
0-023.00
0-121.00
Highlighted = our pick. Odds change; check with the bookmaker before betting.
Confirmed line-ups
ConfirmedHeerenveen 4-2-3-1
1B. Klaverboer
45O. Braude
4S. Kersten
3M. Willemsen
19V. Zagaritis
16M. Linday
8N. Courtens
20J. Trenskow
14L. Smans
7M. Rivera
9D. Vente
Excelsior 4-3-3
1S. van Gassel
2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
4C. Widell
14J. Plug
15S. Janssen
8I. Yegoian
3R. Meissen
20L. Hartjes
7A. Sliti
19D. Garden
30Á. Þorsteinsson
Injuries and suspensions
Heerenveen: D. Proper, Hamstring Injury, out
Excelsior: N. Naujoks, Injury, doubtful
