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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 9
Groningen
2 - 5Full time
Ajax
Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion · Referee: Dennis Higler

Groningen vs Ajax Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Draw or Away (X2)
Odds1.25
83%
Confidence · High
GroningenDrawAjax
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS
Yes
66%
Correct score
1-1
8%
HT/FT
2/2
30%
Double chance
X2
83%
Avg goals
4.2
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ajax and +1.5 goals.
  • Recent form: Groningen LDDWW, Ajax LWWDD (oldest to newest).
  • Groningen score 2.5 a game this season; Ajax score 2.8.

Match preview

Groningen host Ajax in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 9) on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion.

This season Groningen score 2.4 and concede 2.1 goals a game; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.3.

In their last 5 meetings, Groningen won 1, Ajax won 3 and 1 ended level.

Our model leans towards Draw or Away (X2) with 83% confidence, priced at 1.25.

Quick answers

Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?

Our model gives Groningen 17%, the draw 34% and Ajax 49%. Our tip is Draw or Away (X2) (83% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 66% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 70% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Groningen 1 - 1 Ajax. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance X2 (Draw or Away (X2)) has 83% confidence at odds of 1.25.

When is Groningen vs Ajax?

Kick-off is Sunday, 18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Match events

  1. 10'Davy Klaassen
  2. Brynjólfur Darri WillumssonPenalty cancelled16'
  3. 27'Julian Brandt
  4. 37'Aaron Bouwman
  5. Thom Van Bergen40'
  6. 45+2'Dies Janse
  7. Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson49'
  8. 56'Davy KlaassenGoal cancelled
  9. 60'Julian BrandtAssist: Owen Wijndal
  10. Jacob Ondrejka ⇄ Mark Csinger67'
  11. 69'Jorthy Mokio
  12. 74'Julian Brandt ⇄ Abdellah Ouazane
  13. 74'Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida ⇄ Tolu Arokodare
  14. 75'Jorthy MokioAssist: Davy Klaassen
  15. 82'Oscar Gloukh ⇄ Rayane Bounida
  16. 82'Davy Klaassen ⇄ Yves Bissouma
  17. Tika de Jonge ⇄ Nils Eggens83'
  18. Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson ⇄ Tygo Land83'
  19. David van der Werff ⇄ Ryan Metu83'
  20. Marco Rente ⇄ Wouter Prins83'
  21. Thom Van Bergen83'
  22. 90'Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
  23. Thom Van Bergen90+1'

Match stats

GroningenAjax
Possession
57%43%
Expected goals (xG)
2.293.04
Shots
1615
Shots on target
511
Corners
74
Fouls
1217
Offsides
14
Yellow cards
12
Red cards
00
Saves
43
Passes
438449