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League Cup · Round of 16
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Vitality Stadium

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)
Odds1.36
70%
Confidence · Good
BournemouthDrawAston Villa
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS
Yes
58%
Correct score
1-1
10%
HT/FT
1/1
24%
Double chance
1X
70%
Avg goals
4.0
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Double chance : Bournemouth or draw.
  • Recent form: Bournemouth W, Aston Villa W (oldest to newest).
  • Bournemouth score 4.0 a game this season; Aston Villa score 3.0.

Match preview

Bournemouth host Aston Villa in the League Cup (Round of 16) on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium.

Bournemouth come into the game with a form of WWWW (newest first; 4 wins in their last 4), while Aston Villa have WWW (newest first; 3 wins in their last 3).

This season Bournemouth score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals a game; Aston Villa score 3.0 and concede 1.0.

In their last 5 meetings, Bournemouth won 0, Aston Villa won 3 and 2 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 70% confidence, priced at 1.36.

Quick answers

Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Our model gives Bournemouth 39%, the draw 31% and Aston Villa 30%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (70% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 58% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 55% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Bournemouth 1 - 1 Aston Villa. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 70% confidence at odds of 1.36.

When is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Kick-off is Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC at Vitality Stadium. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Key stats

Per game, this season
BournemouthAston Villa
Goals scored
1.33.0
Goals conceded
1.91.0
Clean sheets
14%0%

Model comparison

Percent
BournemouthAston Villa
Form
50%50%
Attack
57%43%
Defence
100%0%
Poisson model
100%0%
Head to head
15%85%
Goals
23%77%
Overall
36%64%
Form, last 5 games
100%100%
Goals scored, last 5
4.03.0
Goals conceded, last 5
0.01.0
Goal forecast: Bournemouth Under 4.5, Aston Villa Under 3.5Model verdict: Win or draw