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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 10
Arouca
Nacional

Arouca vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home Win
Odds1.80
48%
Confidence · Fair
AroucaDrawNacional
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
Yes
53%
Correct score
1-1
10%
HT/FT
1/1
28%
Double chance
1X
84%
Avg goals
2.6
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Winner : Arouca.
  • Recent form: Arouca DLDWW, Nacional LLLLW (oldest to newest).
  • Arouca score 1.3 a game this season; Nacional score 1.1.

Match preview

Arouca host Nacional in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 10) on Sunday, 1 November 2026.

This season Arouca score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals a game; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 2.0.

In their last 5 meetings, Arouca won 4, Nacional won 1 and 0 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home Win with 48% confidence, priced at 1.80.

Quick answers

Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?

Our model gives Arouca 48%, the draw 35% and Nacional 16%. Our tip is Home Win (48% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 53% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 51% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Arouca 1 - 1 Nacional. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 84% confidence at odds of 1.22.

When is Arouca vs Nacional?

Kick-off is Sunday, 1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Key stats

Per game, this season
AroucaNacional
Goals scored
1.31.1
Goals conceded
0.82.0
Clean sheets
56%22%

Model comparison

Percent
AroucaNacional
Form
73%27%
Attack
56%44%
Defence
75%25%
Poisson model
86%14%
Head to head
80%20%
Goals
73%27%
Overall
74%26%
Form, last 5 games
53%20%
Goals scored, last 5
5.04.0
Goals conceded, last 5
4.012.0
Goal forecast: Arouca Under 3.5, Nacional Under 1.5