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Primera División · Clausura - 13
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Parque Abraham Paladino

Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)
Odds1.50
67%
Confidence · Good
ProgresoDrawDefensor Sporting
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS
Yes
51%
Correct score
1-1
11%
HT/FT
1/1
19%
Double chance
1X
67%
Avg goals
2.3
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Double chance : Progreso or draw.
  • Recent form: Progreso WLDWW, Defensor Sporting WLLLD (oldest to newest).
  • Progreso score 0.9 a game this season; Defensor Sporting score 1.0.

Match preview

Progreso host Defensor Sporting in the Primera División (Clausura - 13) on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at Parque Abraham Paladino.

This season Progreso score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals a game; Defensor Sporting score 1.0 and concede 1.3.

In their last 5 meetings, Progreso won 1, Defensor Sporting won 3 and 1 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 67% confidence, priced at 1.50.

Quick answers

Who will win Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?

Our model gives Progreso 35%, the draw 32% and Defensor Sporting 33%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (67% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 51% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect under 2.5 goals (two or fewer), 54% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Progreso 1 - 1 Defensor Sporting. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 67% confidence at odds of 1.50.

When is Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?

Kick-off is Sunday, 1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC at Parque Abraham Paladino. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Key stats

Per game, this season
ProgresoDefensor Sporting
Goals scored
0.91.0
Goals conceded
1.41.3
Clean sheets
18%24%

Model comparison

Percent
ProgresoDefensor Sporting
Form
71%29%
Attack
50%50%
Defence
67%33%
Poisson model
44%56%
Head to head
40%60%
Goals
38%62%
Overall
52%48%
Form, last 5 games
67%27%
Goals scored, last 5
8.08.0
Goals conceded, last 5
5.010.0
Goal forecast: Progreso Under 2.5, Defensor Sporting Under 2.5Model verdict: Win or draw

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