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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 9
Marseille
Toulouse
Orange Vélodrome

Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)
Odds1.28
82%
Confidence · High
MarseilleDrawToulouse
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS
Yes
63%
Correct score
1-1
9%
HT/FT
1/1
29%
Double chance
1X
82%
Avg goals
3.4
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Combo Double chance : Marseille or draw and +1.5 goals.
  • Recent form: Marseille LLWWW, Toulouse DWDWD (oldest to newest).
  • Marseille score 2.3 a game this season; Toulouse score 1.5.

Match preview

Marseille host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 9) on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at Orange Vélodrome.

Marseille come into the game with a form of WLWL (newest first; 2 wins in their last 4).

This season Marseille score 2.3 and concede 1.6 goals a game; Toulouse score 1.5 and concede 1.4.

In their last 5 meetings, Marseille won 3, Toulouse won 0 and 2 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 82% confidence, priced at 1.28.

Quick answers

Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?

Our model gives Marseille 48%, the draw 35% and Toulouse 18%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (82% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 63% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 62% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Marseille 1 - 1 Toulouse. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 82% confidence at odds of 1.28.

When is Marseille vs Toulouse?

Kick-off is Sunday, 1 November 2026, 19:45 UTC at Orange Vélodrome. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Key stats

Per game, this season
MarseilleToulouse
Goals scored
2.31.5
Goals conceded
1.61.4
Clean sheets
25%25%

Model comparison

Percent
MarseilleToulouse
Form
50%50%
Attack
55%45%
Defence
43%57%
Poisson model
43%57%
Head to head
71%29%
Goals
58%42%
Overall
53%47%
Form, last 5 games
60%60%
Goals scored, last 5
12.010.0
Goals conceded, last 5
8.06.0
Goal forecast: Marseille Under 3.5, Toulouse Under 3.5Model verdict: Win or draw