Leon vs Toluca Prediction, Odds & Tips
Draw or Away (X2)Odds1.28
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64%
Why we like it
- Model advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca.
- Recent form: Leon WDWDL, Toluca WLDLD (oldest to newest).
- Leon score 1.5 a game this season; Toluca score 2.2.
Match preview
Leon host Toluca in the Liga MX (Apertura - 14) on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at Estadio León.
This season Leon score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals a game; Toluca score 2.2 and concede 1.3.
In their last 5 meetings, Leon won 0, Toluca won 3 and 2 ended level.
Our model leans towards Draw or Away (X2) with 83% confidence, priced at 1.28.
Quick answers
Who will win Leon vs Toluca?
Our model gives Leon 17%, the draw 35% and Toluca 48%. Our tip is Draw or Away (X2) (83% confidence).
Will both teams score?
Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 65% confidence.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 64% confidence.
What is the predicted correct score?
Our most likely score is Leon 1 - 1 Toluca. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.
What is the safest bet?
Double chance X2 (Draw or Away (X2)) has 83% confidence at odds of 1.28.
When is Leon vs Toluca?
Kick-off is Saturday, 24 October 2026, 23:00 UTC at Estadio León. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.
Match events
- Rodrigo Echeverría9'
- ●Jose AlvaradoAssist: Ismael Díaz12'
- 27'Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
- 31'Franco Romero
- Jose Alvarado39'
- 44'Federico ViñasAssist: Jorge Diaz●
- ⇄Rodrigo Echeverría ⇄ Diber Cambindo45'
- ⇄Jose Alvarado ⇄ Jose Rodriguez45'
- ⇄Edgar Guerra ⇄ Juan Dominguez62'
- 63'Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro ⇄ Alexis Vega⇄
- ⇄Fernando Beltran ⇄ Jordi Cortizo63'
- 63'Pavel Pérez ⇄ Nicolás Castro⇄
- 75'Federico Viñas ⇄ João Paulo Dias Fernandes⇄
- ⇄Daniel Arcila ⇄ Jesús Lara75'
- 86'Jorge Diaz ⇄ Jesús Angulo⇄
- Jesús Lara90+3'
- 90+3'Bruno Méndez
Match stats
LeonToluca
Expected goals (xG)
1.541.29
Key stats
Per game, this seasonLeonToluca
Model comparison
PercentLeonToluca
Goals scored, last 5
9.09.0
Goals conceded, last 5
8.010.0
Goal forecast: Leon Under 2.5, Toluca Under 2.5Model verdict: Win or draw
Leon · last 2
1W 0D 1L21 OctATigres UANL0-2W
18 OctHClub America3-5L
Toluca · last 2
0W 2D 0L22 OctHClub Tijuana2-2D
18 OctHAtletico San Luis1-1D
Head to head
Last 10Sept 2026Toluca2-0Leon
Apr 2026Toluca4-1Leon
Oct 2025Leon2-4Toluca
Feb 2025Leon3-3Toluca
Nov 2024Toluca2-2Leon
Feb 2024Toluca4-1Leon
Oct 2023Leon1-0Toluca
Jan 2023Toluca0-0Leon
Jul 2022Leon0-1Toluca
May 2022Leon4-4Toluca
Best available odds
DecimalHT/FT
1/X15.00
1/219.00
X/25.50
X/X6.50
1/15.50
X/18.50
2/126.00
2/X13.00
2/23.00
Correct score
1-18.00
1-29.00
2-211.00
0-112.00
0-212.00
2-113.00
1-313.00
0-317.00
1-019.00
0-019.00
2-319.00
2-023.00
Highlighted = our pick. Odds change; check with the bookmaker before betting.
Confirmed line-ups
ConfirmedLeon 4-1-4-1
23Ó. García
7I. Moreno
14J. Romaña
3Juan José Guevara Possu
5S. Vegas
13D. Arcila
18E. Guerra
20R. Echeverría
6F. Beltrán
11I. Díaz
19J. Alvarado
Toluca 4-2-3-1
1H. González
19S. Simón
4B. Méndez
6F. Pereira
20J. Gallardo
5F. Romero
35É. Gutiérrez
11Helinho
29J. Díaz
15P. Pérez
16F. Viñas
