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Copa Do Brasil · Semi-finals
Gremio
Atletico-MG

Gremio vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)
Odds1.40
78%
Confidence · Good
GremioDrawAtletico-MG
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS
No
53%
Correct score
1-1
11%
HT/FT
1/1
21%
Double chance
1X
78%
Avg goals
2.0
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Combo Double chance : Gremio or draw and -3.5 goals.
  • Recent form: Gremio WDWDW, Atletico-MG DDWDW (oldest to newest).
  • Gremio score 1.7 a game this season; Atletico-MG score 1.3.

Match preview

Gremio host Atletico-MG in the Copa Do Brasil (Semi-finals) on Sunday, 1 November 2026.

Atletico-MG have LWW (newest first; 2 wins in their last 3).

This season Gremio score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals a game; Atletico-MG score 1.4 and concede 1.1.

In their last 5 meetings, Gremio won 3, Atletico-MG won 2 and 0 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 78% confidence, priced at 1.40.

Quick answers

Who will win Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

Our model gives Gremio 42%, the draw 37% and Atletico-MG 22%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (78% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is no, at least one side fails to score (NG), with 53% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect under 2.5 goals (two or fewer), 58% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Gremio 1 - 1 Atletico-MG. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 78% confidence at odds of 1.40.

When is Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

Kick-off is Sunday, 1 November 2026, 21:30 UTC. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Key stats

Per game, this season
GremioAtletico-MG
Goals scored
1.11.4
Goals conceded
1.41.1
Clean sheets
19%26%

Model comparison

Percent
GremioAtletico-MG
Form
55%45%
Attack
57%43%
Defence
67%33%
Poisson model
77%23%
Head to head
60%40%
Goals
50%50%
Overall
61%39%
Form, last 5 games
73%60%
Goals scored, last 5
8.06.0
Goals conceded, last 5
2.04.0
Goal forecast: Gremio Under 2.5, Atletico-MG Under 1.5Model verdict: Win or draw

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