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Primera A · Clausura - 16
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
Estadio Atanasio Girardot · Referee: J. Ortiz

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home Win
Odds1.75
52%
Confidence · Fair
Atletico NacionalDrawIndependiente Medellin
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS
Yes
56%
Correct score
1-1
10%
HT/FT
1/1
30%
Double chance
1X
89%
Avg goals
2.8
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Winner : Atletico Nacional.
  • Recent form: Atletico Nacional WDWLW, Independiente Medellin LDLWL (oldest to newest).
  • Atletico Nacional score 2.0 a game this season; Independiente Medellin score 1.4.

Match preview

Atletico Nacional host Independiente Medellin in the Primera A (Clausura - 16) on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Atletico Nacional come into the game with a form of WLWW (newest first; 3 wins in their last 4), while Independiente Medellin have LLW (newest first; 1 win in their last 3).

This season Atletico Nacional score 2.0 and concede 0.8 goals a game; Independiente Medellin score 1.4 and concede 1.3.

In their last 5 meetings, Atletico Nacional won 4, Independiente Medellin won 0 and 1 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home Win with 52% confidence, priced at 1.75.

Quick answers

Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?

Our model gives Atletico Nacional 52%, the draw 37% and Independiente Medellin 11%. Our tip is Home Win (52% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 56% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 55% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Atletico Nacional 1 - 1 Independiente Medellin. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 89% confidence at odds of 1.22.

When is Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?

Kick-off is Sunday, 25 October 2026, 23:10 UTC at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Key stats

Per game, this season
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
Goals scored
2.01.4
Goals conceded
0.81.3
Clean sheets
33%21%

Model comparison

Percent
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
Form
71%29%
Attack
71%29%
Defence
73%27%
Poisson model
78%22%
Head to head
93%7%
Goals
64%36%
Overall
75%25%
Form, last 5 games
67%27%
Goals scored, last 5
10.04.0
Goals conceded, last 5
3.08.0
Goal forecast: Atletico Nacional Under 3.5, Independiente Medellin Under 1.5