Alaves vs Malaga Prediction, Odds & Tips
Home or Draw (1X)Odds1.14
AlavesDrawMalaga
53%35%12%
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
Why we like it
- Model advice: Double chance : Alaves or draw.
- Recent form: Alaves LLDLL, Malaga DLLDL (oldest to newest).
- Alaves score 1.4 a game this season; Malaga score 0.7.
Match preview
Alaves host Malaga in the La Liga (Regular Season - 10) on Friday, 23 October 2026 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
In their last 5 meetings, Alaves won 4, Malaga won 1 and 0 ended level.
Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 88% confidence, priced at 1.14.
Quick answers
Who will win Alaves vs Malaga?
Our model gives Alaves 53%, the draw 35% and Malaga 12%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (88% confidence).
Will both teams score?
Our BTTS pick is no, at least one side fails to score (NG), with 56% confidence.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
We expect under 2.5 goals (two or fewer), 55% confidence.
What is the predicted correct score?
Our most likely score is Alaves 1 - 0 Malaga. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.
What is the safest bet?
Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 88% confidence at odds of 1.14.
When is Alaves vs Malaga?
Kick-off is Friday, 23 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Estadio de Mendizorroza. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.
Match events
- Lucas Boyé39'
- 44'Adrian NinoAssist: Ramón Enríquez●
- 45'Adrian NinoGoal confirmedVAR
- ⇄Carles Aleñá ⇄ Hugo Novoa Ramos45'
- ⇄Nicolas Valentini ⇄ Youssef Enriquez55'
- ⇄Abderrahmane Rebbach ⇄ Denis Suárez55'
- ⇄Mariano Díaz ⇄ Toni Martínez66'
- Nahuel Tenaglia67'
- 68'Adam Aznou ⇄ José Salinas⇄
- 68'Ramón Enríquez ⇄ Rafael Rodríguez Ruiz⇄
- ⇄Antonio Blanco ⇄ Aitor Mañas75'
- 77'Carlos Puga ⇄ Juan Berrocal⇄
- 77'Adrian Nino ⇄ Carlos Ruiz Rubio⇄
- 84'Carlos Dotor
- 87'Carlos Dotor ⇄ Jens Cajuste⇄
- ●Aitor Mañas89'
- 90+2'Juan Francisco Funes Arjona
Match stats
AlavesMalaga
Expected goals (xG)
1.880.62
Key stats
Per game, this seasonAlavesMalaga
Model comparison
PercentAlavesMalaga
Goals scored, last 5
3.05.0
Goals conceded, last 5
7.011.0
Goal forecast: Alaves Under 2.5, Malaga Under 1.5Model verdict: Win or draw
Alaves · last 1
0W 0D 1L18 OctACelta Vigo2-1L
Malaga · last 1
0W 0D 1L18 OctHReal Sociedad2-5L
Head to head
Last 6May 2023Alaves2-1Malaga
Dec 2022Malaga1-0Alaves
May 2018Malaga0-3Alaves
Dec 2017Alaves1-0Malaga
Mar 2017Malaga1-2Alaves
Oct 2016Alaves1-1Malaga
Best available odds
DecimalHT/FT
1/X15.00
1/241.00
X/211.00
X/X5.50
1/12.50
X/14.33
2/123.00
2/X17.00
2/29.50
Correct score
1-06.00
2-06.50
1-17.00
2-18.50
0-08.50
3-011.00
3-115.00
0-115.00
2-219.00
1-221.00
0-226.00
4-023.00
4-129.00
3-229.00
Highlighted = our pick. Odds change; check with the bookmaker before betting.
Confirmed line-ups
ConfirmedAlaves 5-3-2
1Sivera
7Angel Pérez
14N. Tenaglia
16V. Koski
2N. Valentini
21A. Rebbach
19Pablo Ibáñez
8Antonio Blanco
10Carles Aleñá
15L. Boyé
9M. Díaz
Malaga 4-1-4-1
1Alfonso Herrero
3Puga
15Ángel Recio
4Einar Galilea
31Rafita
6Ramón Enríquez
10David Larrubia
8Carlos Dotor
22Dani Lorenzo
39Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
21Adrián Niño Heredia
