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UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Sturm Graz
1 - 0Full time
Marseille
Stadion Graz-Liebenau · Referee: Nenad Minakovic

Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)
Odds1.73
71%
Confidence · Good
Sturm GrazDrawMarseille
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS
Yes
58%
Correct score
1-1
10%
HT/FT
2/2
26%
Double chance
1X
71%
Avg goals
2.3
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Double chance : Sturm Graz or draw.
  • Recent form: Sturm Graz DL, Marseille LL (oldest to newest).
  • Sturm Graz score 0.0 a game this season; Marseille score 0.5.

Match preview

Sturm Graz host Marseille in the UEFA Europa League (League Stage - 3) on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.

This season Sturm Graz score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals a game; Marseille score 2.0 and concede 1.4.

Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 71% confidence, priced at 1.73.

Quick answers

Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

Our model gives Sturm Graz 35%, the draw 36% and Marseille 29%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (71% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 58% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 55% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Marseille. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 71% confidence at odds of 1.73.

When is Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

Kick-off is Thursday, 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Match events

  1. Oumar DiakitéAssist: Luca Weinhandl13'
  2. 24'Angel Gomes
  3. Oumar Diakité32'
  4. 45'Angel Gomes ⇄ Himad Abdelli
  5. 45'Neal Maupay ⇄ Igor Paixão
  6. Oumar Diakité ⇄ Belmin Beganovic45'
  7. Luca Weinhandl63'
  8. 65'Geoffrey Kondogbia ⇄ Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
  9. 65'Nayef Aguerd ⇄ CJ Egan-Riley
  10. 80'Amine Gouiri
  11. 83'Kelyann Bezahaf ⇄ Timothy Weah
  12. Arjan Malić84'
  13. Jacob Peter Hödl ⇄ Albert Vallci87'
  14. Valmir Matoshi ⇄ Julian Halwachs90'
  15. 90+1'Bamo Meite

Match stats

Sturm GrazMarseille
Possession
29%71%
Expected goals (xG)
1.870.80
Shots
1314
Shots on target
51
Corners
24
Fouls
239
Offsides
31
Yellow cards
33
Red cards
00
Saves
14
Passes
273677