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Championship · Regular Season - 10
QPR
4 - 1Full time
Derby
Loftus Road · Referee: Matthew Corlett

QPR vs Derby Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)
Odds1.18
84%
Confidence · High
QPRDrawDerby
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
Yes
51%
Correct score
1-1
10%
HT/FT
1/1
32%
Double chance
1X
84%
Avg goals
2.4
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Combo Double chance : QPR or draw and -3.5 goals.
  • Recent form: QPR LDDDD, Derby LLLDD (oldest to newest).
  • QPR score 1.2 a game this season; Derby score 0.9.

Match preview

QPR host Derby in the Championship (Regular Season - 10) on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at Loftus Road.

This season QPR score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals a game; Derby score 0.8 and concede 1.8.

In their last 5 meetings, QPR won 2, Derby won 3 and 0 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 84% confidence, priced at 1.18.

Quick answers

Who will win QPR vs Derby?

Our model gives QPR 49%, the draw 36% and Derby 16%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (84% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 51% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 50% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is QPR 1 - 1 Derby. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 84% confidence at odds of 1.18.

When is QPR vs Derby?

Kick-off is Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Loftus Road. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Match events

  1. 12'Sondre Langas ⇄ Ryan Nyambe
  2. Alfie LloydAssist: Boy Kemper18'
  3. Nicolas MadsenPenalty22'
  4. 24'D. Ozoh
  5. 28'John Eustace
  6. 44'Sammie Szmodics
  7. Harvey Vale45'
  8. 45'D. Ozoh ⇄ Lewis Travis
  9. 45'Mohammed Fuseini ⇄ Henrik Wendel Meister
  10. 56'Henrik Wendel Meister
  11. Harvey Vale57'
  12. Glen Kamara60'
  13. Rayan Jawad Kolli ⇄ Richard Kone62'
  14. Alfie Lloyd ⇄ Jonathan Varane62'
  15. Harvey Vale ⇄ Kwame Poku62'
  16. 63'Carlton Morris ⇄ Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
  17. Paul SmythAssist: Nicolas Madsen68'
  18. 70'Sammie Szmodics ⇄ Filip Bilbija
  19. Boy Kemper ⇄ Amadou Salif Mbengue72'
  20. Paul Smyth ⇄ Leon Scarlett77'
  21. 90+10'Lars-Jørgen Salvesen

Match stats

QPRDerby
Possession
48%52%
Expected goals (xG)
1.600.93
Shots
915
Shots on target
76
Corners
13
Fouls
1010
Offsides
02
Yellow cards
23
Red cards
00
Saves
53
Passes
439464