Palmeiras vs Fluminense Prediction, Odds & Tips
Our Prediction
Banker of the DayHome or Draw (1X)Odds1.22
PalmeirasDrawFluminense
47%36%17%
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
Why we like it
- Model advice: Double chance : Palmeiras or draw.
- Recent form: Palmeiras DWWDW, Fluminense DWWLL (oldest to newest).
- Palmeiras score 1.6 a game this season; Fluminense score 1.2.
Match preview
Palmeiras host Fluminense in the CONMEBOL Libertadores (Semi-finals) on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Nubank Parque.
This season Palmeiras score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals a game; Fluminense score 1.6 and concede 1.3.
In their last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 3, Fluminense won 1 and 1 ended level.
Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 83% confidence, priced at 1.22.
Quick answers
Who will win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model gives Palmeiras 47%, the draw 36% and Fluminense 17%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (83% confidence).
Will both teams score?
Our BTTS pick is no, at least one side fails to score (NG), with 52% confidence.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
We expect under 2.5 goals (two or fewer), 56% confidence.
What is the predicted correct score?
Our most likely score is Palmeiras 1 - 0 Fluminense. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.
What is the safest bet?
Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 83% confidence at odds of 1.22.
When is Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Kick-off is Thursday, 22 October 2026, 00:30 UTC at Nubank Parque. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.
Match events
- 31'Julian Millan ⇄ Ignácio da Silva Oliveira⇄
- 45'Jefferson David Savarino Quintero ⇄ Kevin Serna⇄
- Alexander Barboza49'
- 56'Hércules Pereira do Nascimento
- ⇄José Manuel López ⇄ Ramon Sosa62'
- Jhon Arias76'
- 79'Claudio Rodrigues Gomes ⇄ Samuel Xavier Brito⇄
- 79'Agustín Canobbio ⇄ Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado⇄
- 82'Hércules Pereira do NascimentoAssist: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado●
- ⇄Andreas Pereira ⇄ Maurício Magalhães Prado83'
- ⇄Jhon Arias ⇄ Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho87'
- ⇄Agustin Giay ⇄ Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira87'
- 87'Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima ⇄ Luciano Acosta⇄
- ●Maurício Magalhães PradoPenalty91'
- 92'Thiago SilvaPenalty●
- ●Gustavo GómezPenalty93'
- 94'Hércules Pereira do NascimentoPenalty●
- ●Ramon SosaPenalty95'
- 96'Guilherme AranaPenalty●
- ●Joaquín PiquerezPenalty96'
- 97'Gustavo Nonato Santana✕
- ●Marlon FreitasPenalty98'
Match stats
PalmeirasFluminense
Expected goals (xG)
0.670.32
Key stats
Per game, this seasonPalmeirasFluminense
Model comparison
PercentPalmeirasFluminense
Goals scored, last 5
8.06.0
Goals conceded, last 5
5.05.0
Goal forecast: Palmeiras Under 2.5, Fluminense Under 1.5Model verdict: Win or draw
Palmeiras · last 2
2W 0D 0L17 OctAAtletico Paranaense0-2W
15 OctAFluminense1-2W
Fluminense · last 2
0W 0D 2L18 OctHSantos1-2L
15 OctHPalmeiras1-2L
Head to head
Last 10Oct 2026Fluminense1-2Palmeiras
Aug 2026Fluminense3-2Palmeiras
Feb 2026Palmeiras2-1Fluminense
Nov 2025Palmeiras0-0Fluminense
Jul 2025Fluminense1-2Palmeiras
Dec 2024Palmeiras0-1Fluminense
Jul 2024Fluminense1-0Palmeiras
Dec 2023Palmeiras1-0Fluminense
Aug 2023Fluminense2-1Palmeiras
Aug 2022Fluminense1-1Palmeiras
Best available odds
DecimalHT/FT
1/X15.00
1/234.00
X/28.50
X/X5.00
1/13.00
X/14.75
2/126.00
2/X17.00
2/27.00
Correct score
1-06.50
1-16.50
0-08.00
2-08.50
2-19.00
0-110.00
1-213.00
3-015.00
3-117.00
2-217.00
0-221.00
4-029.00
3-234.00
Highlighted = our pick. Odds change; check with the bookmaker before betting.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
Confirmed line-ups
ConfirmedPalmeiras 3-4-2-1
1Carlos Miguel
26Murilo
15G. Gómez
2A. Barboza
4A. Giay
30Lucas Evangelista
17Marlon Freitas
22J. Piquerez
11J. Arias
8Andreas Pereira
42J. López
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
1Fábio
23Guga
3Thiago Silva
29J. Millán
13Guilherme Arana
35Hércules
16Nonato
11J. Savarino
10PH Ganso
17A. Canobbio
7Hulk
