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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10
Lugo
Mérida AD
Estadio Anxo Carro

Lugo vs Mérida AD Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home or Draw (1X)
Odds–
90%
Confidence · High
LugoDrawMérida AD
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS
Yes
57%
Correct score
2-1
8%
HT/FT
1/1
28%
Double chance
1X
90%
Avg goals
2.9
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Double chance : Lugo or draw.
  • Recent form: Lugo WWWWL, Mérida AD LWWWD (oldest to newest).
  • Lugo score 1.8 a game this season; Mérida AD score 1.7.

Match preview

Lugo host Mérida AD in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Group 1 - 10) on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at Estadio Anxo Carro.

Lugo come into the game with a form of LWW (newest first; 2 wins in their last 3).

This season Lugo score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals a game; Mérida AD score 1.7 and concede 1.3.

In their last 2 meetings, Lugo won 2, Mérida AD won 0 and 0 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home or Draw (1X) with 90% confidence.

Quick answers

Who will win Lugo vs Mérida AD?

Our model gives Lugo 45%, the draw 45% and Mérida AD 10%. Our tip is Home or Draw (1X) (90% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 57% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 54% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Lugo 2 - 1 Mérida AD. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 90% confidence.

When is Lugo vs Mérida AD?

Kick-off is Sunday, 1 November 2026, 17:45 UTC at Estadio Anxo Carro. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Key stats

Per game, this season
LugoMérida AD
Goals scored
1.81.7
Goals conceded
0.91.3
Clean sheets
44%44%

Model comparison

Percent
LugoMérida AD
Form
55%45%
Attack
48%52%
Defence
50%50%
Poisson model
76%24%
Head to head
100%0%
Goals
100%0%
Overall
57%43%
Form, last 5 games
80%67%
Goals scored, last 5
10.011.0
Goals conceded, last 5
6.06.0
Goal forecast: Lugo Under 2.5, Mérida AD Under 2.5Model verdict: Win or draw

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