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Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 15
Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
Estadio Jalisco

Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home Win
Odds–
45%
Confidence · Fair
Leones Negros UDGDrawTepatitlán
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS
Yes
60%
Correct score
3-1
8%
HT/FT
1/1
28%
Double chance
1X
90%
Avg goals
3.6
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Combo Winner : Leones Negros UDG and +1.5 goals.
  • Recent form: Leones Negros UDG WWDLW, Tepatitlán WDLLL (oldest to newest).
  • Leones Negros UDG score 2.2 a game this season; Tepatitlán score 0.7.

Match preview

Leones Negros UDG host Tepatitlán in the Liga de Expansión MX (Apertura - 15) on Sunday, 1 November 2026 at Estadio Jalisco.

Tepatitlán have LLL (newest first; 0 wins in their last 3).

This season Leones Negros UDG score 2.2 and concede 1.4 goals a game; Tepatitlán score 0.7 and concede 2.9.

In their last 5 meetings, Leones Negros UDG won 1, Tepatitlán won 1 and 3 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home Win with 45% confidence.

Quick answers

Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?

Our model gives Leones Negros UDG 45%, the draw 45% and Tepatitlán 10%. Our tip is Home Win (45% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 60% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 70% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Leones Negros UDG 3 - 1 Tepatitlán. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 90% confidence.

When is Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?

Kick-off is Sunday, 1 November 2026, 18:00 UTC at Estadio Jalisco. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Key stats

Per game, this season
Leones Negros UDGTepatitlán
Goals scored
2.20.7
Goals conceded
1.42.9
Clean sheets
21%0%

Model comparison

Percent
Leones Negros UDGTepatitlán
Form
71%29%
Attack
71%29%
Defence
65%35%
Poisson model
91%9%
Head to head
50%50%
Goals
50%50%
Overall
66%34%
Form, last 5 games
67%27%
Goals scored, last 5
12.05.0
Goals conceded, last 5
7.013.0
Goal forecast: Leones Negros UDG Under 4.5, Tepatitlán Under 1.5

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