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UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2
Benfica
4 - 1Full time
Celtic
Estádio da Luz · Referee: Nikola Dabanovic

Benfica vs Celtic Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Home Win
Odds1.18
62%
Confidence · Fair
BenficaDrawCeltic
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS
Yes
53%
Correct score
3-0
8%
HT/FT
1/1
52%
Double chance
1X
91%
Avg goals
4.0
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Combo Winner : Benfica and +1.5 goals.
  • Recent form: Benfica WDWWW, Celtic L (oldest to newest).
  • Benfica score 3.0 a game this season; Celtic score 1.0.

Match preview

Benfica host Celtic in the UEFA Europa League (League Stage - 2) on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at Estádio da Luz.

This season Benfica score 3.0 and concede 0.9 goals a game; Celtic score 2.6 and concede 0.6.

In their last 2 meetings, Benfica won 1, Celtic won 0 and 1 ended level.

Our model leans towards Home Win with 62% confidence, priced at 1.18.

Quick answers

Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?

Our model gives Benfica 62%, the draw 29% and Celtic 9%. Our tip is Home Win (62% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 53% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 75% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is Benfica 3 - 0 Celtic. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance 1X (Home or Draw (1X)) has 91% confidence at odds of 1.05.

When is Benfica vs Celtic?

Kick-off is Thursday, 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Estádio da Luz. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Match events

  1. Jhon DuránPenalty5'
  2. Alexander BahAssist: Gianluca Prestianni23'
  3. Jhon DuránAssist: Gianluca Prestianni36'
  4. Samuel Dahl44'
  5. 45'Kasper Hogh ⇄ Haissem Hassan
  6. 45'Sebastian Tounekti ⇄ Callum Osmand
  7. 57'Oliver Sorensen ⇄ Benjamin Nygren
  8. 57'Mika Baur ⇄ Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
  9. 63'Camilo DuranAssist: Haissem Hassan
  10. Heorhii Sudakov ⇄ Claudio Echeverri64'
  11. Samuel Dahl ⇄ Souffian El Karouani64'
  12. Jhon Durán ⇄ Vangelis Pavlidis67'
  13. Dodi Lukebakio ⇄ Andreas Schjelderup68'
  14. Alexander Bah69'
  15. 77'Colby Donovan ⇄ Jordan Lotomba
  16. Alexander Bah ⇄ Alessandro Circati80'
  17. João Palhinha85'
  18. Vangelis PavlidisAssist: Tomás Araújo89'

Match stats

BenficaCeltic
Possession
53%47%
Expected goals (xG)
2.781.31
Shots
2614
Shots on target
77
Corners
86
Fouls
97
Offsides
22
Yellow cards
30
Red cards
00
Saves
63
Passes
575511