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UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2
AS Roma
3 - 4Full time
Real Madrid
Stadio Olimpico · Referee: Francois Letexier

AS Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Tips

Our Prediction

Draw or Away (X2)
Odds1.28
82%
Confidence · High
AS RomaDrawReal Madrid
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66%
BTTS
Yes
65%
Correct score
1-1
9%
HT/FT
2/2
28%
Double chance
X2
82%
Avg goals
2.5
Expected
Why we like it
  • Model advice: Double chance : draw or Real Madrid.
  • Recent form: AS Roma D, Real Madrid W (oldest to newest).
  • AS Roma score 1.0 a game this season; Real Madrid score 2.0.

Match preview

AS Roma host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (League Stage - 2) on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.

This season AS Roma score 2.3 and concede 0.4 goals a game; Real Madrid score 2.6 and concede 1.0.

In their last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 0, Real Madrid won 5 and 0 ended level.

Our model leans towards Draw or Away (X2) with 82% confidence, priced at 1.28.

Quick answers

Who will win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Our model gives AS Roma 18%, the draw 34% and Real Madrid 47%. Our tip is Draw or Away (X2) (82% confidence).

Will both teams score?

Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 65% confidence.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 66% confidence.

What is the predicted correct score?

Our most likely score is AS Roma 1 - 1 Real Madrid. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.

What is the safest bet?

Double chance X2 (Draw or Away (X2)) has 82% confidence at odds of 1.28.

When is AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Kick-off is Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Stadio Olimpico. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.

Match events

  1. Manu Koné ⇄ Niccolò Pisilli17'
  2. Marten de RoonAssist: Matias Soule20'
  3. 25'Kylian MbappéAssist: Yan Diomande
  4. Paulo Dybala ⇄ Rodrigo Mora45'
  5. Donyell MalenAssist: Rodrigo Mora51'
  6. Donyell MalenAssist: Matias Soule57'
  7. Donyell MalenGoal confirmed58'
  8. 59'Vinícius ⇄ Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
  9. 59'Denzel Dumfries ⇄ Arda Güler
  10. Gianluca Mancini60'
  11. Gianluca Mancini ⇄ Leonardo Balerdi63'
  12. Matias Soule ⇄ Lorenzo Pellegrini63'
  13. Wesley Vinícius França Lima69'
  14. 70'Aurelien Tchouameni ⇄ Bernardo Silva
  15. 78'Marc Cucurella ⇄ Álvaro Fernández Carreras
  16. 78'Yan Diomande ⇄ Carlos Espí
  17. Mario Hermoso ⇄ Konstantinos Koulierakis81'
  18. 83'Carlos Espí
  19. 83'Carlos EspíGoal confirmed
  20. 85'Endrick Felipe Moreira de SousaAssist: Arda Güler
  21. Lorenzo Pellegrini89'
  22. 90'Antonio RüdigerAssist: Arda Güler
  23. 90+5'Álvaro Fernández Carreras

Match stats

AS RomaReal Madrid
Possession
54%46%
Expected goals (xG)
1.511.89
Shots
1416
Shots on target
78
Corners
59
Fouls
158
Offsides
11
Yellow cards
31
Red cards
00
Saves
44
Passes
546459