Ajax vs Atalanta Prediction, Odds & Tips
Draw or Away (X2)Odds1.70
AjaxDrawAtalanta
27%35%37%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59%
Why we like it
- Model advice: Double chance : draw or Atalanta.
- Recent form: Ajax WDWWL, Atalanta DWW (oldest to newest).
- Ajax score 3.3 a game this season; Atalanta score 1.3.
Match preview
Ajax host Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League (League Stage - 2) on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Atalanta have LWW (newest first; 2 wins in their last 3).
This season Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals a game; Atalanta score 1.4 and concede 1.6.
In their last 2 meetings, Ajax won 0, Atalanta won 1 and 1 ended level.
Our model leans towards Draw or Away (X2) with 73% confidence, priced at 1.70.
Quick answers
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
Our model gives Ajax 27%, the draw 35% and Atalanta 37%. Our tip is Draw or Away (X2) (73% confidence).
Will both teams score?
Our BTTS pick is yes, both teams to score (GG), with 61% confidence.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
We expect over 2.5 goals (three or more), 59% confidence.
What is the predicted correct score?
Our most likely score is Ajax 1 - 1 Atalanta. Correct-score picks are long shots, so treat it as a guide.
What is the safest bet?
Double chance X2 (Draw or Away (X2)) has 73% confidence at odds of 1.70.
When is Ajax vs Atalanta?
Kick-off is Thursday, 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Johan Cruijff Arena. The time on this page is shown in your own time zone.
Match events
- Sofyan Amrabat45'
- ⇄O. Gloukh ⇄ A. Ouazane62'
- ⇄D. Klaassen ⇄ V. Tsygankov62'
- 62'C. De Ketelaere ⇄ L. Samardzic⇄
- ⇄Marcos Leonardo ⇄ T. Arokodare66'
- 68'Lazar Samardžić
- 72'G. Scamacca ⇄ N. Krstovic⇄
- 80'G. Gaetano ⇄ M. Pasalic⇄
- 80'E. Elmas ⇄ J. Rowe⇄
- 86'Nicola Zalewski
- ●T. ArokodareAssist: Y. Baas87'
- ●A. OuazaneAssist: T. Arokodare90'
- ⇄J. Brandt ⇄ D. Janse90+1'
- Marc-André Ter Stegen90+2'
Match stats
AjaxAtalanta
Expected goals (xG)
1.780.97
Key stats
Per game, this seasonAjaxAtalanta
Model comparison
PercentAjaxAtalanta
Goals scored, last 5
15.04.0
Goals conceded, last 5
10.01.0
Goal forecast: Ajax Under 3.5, Atalanta Under 2.5Model verdict: Win or draw
Ajax · last 2
1W 0D 1L18 OctAGroningen2-5W
15 OctAHNK Hajduk Split2-1L
Atalanta · last 3
2W 0D 1L18 OctAAC Milan3-2L
15 OctHPafos3-1W
12 OctHVenezia3-1W
Head to head
Last 2Dec 2020Ajax0-1Atalanta
Oct 2020Atalanta2-2Ajax
Best available odds
DecimalHT/FT
1/X13.00
1/226.00
X/27.50
X/X6.00
1/13.40
X/15.50
2/121.00
2/X13.00
2/25.00
Correct score
1-17.00
2-19.00
1-011.00
2-211.00
2-012.00
1-212.00
0-113.00
3-115.00
0-015.00
0-219.00
3-021.00
3-221.00
Highlighted = our pick. Odds change; check with the bookmaker before betting.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
Confirmed line-ups
ConfirmedAjax 4-2-3-1
1M. ter Stegen
2L. Rosa
30A. Bouwman
15Y. Baas
5O. Wijndal
24J. Mokio
4S. Amrabat
18D. Klaassen
8J. Brandt
10O. Gloukh
38Marcos Leonardo
Atalanta 4-2-3-1
29M. Carnesecchi
16R. Bellanova
31T. Kristensen
40R. Obric
77D. Zappacosta
70G. Gaetano
13Ederson
99E. Elmas
17C. De Ketelaere
59N. Zalewski
9G. Scamacca
